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It is important to have an open-minded discussion on climate change, a topic critical to Nigeria and Africa’s future economic viability. Such a discussion matters because the debate is often dominated by people in Europe and North America who operate in different contexts and rarely consider Africa or its specific needs
Two major camps in Europe and North America dominate the climate change debate: the first is the climate change activists, and the second is the dominant camp of climate change sceptics.
Climate change activists argue that human activities, such as burning of fossil fuels, is the major driver of greenhouse gas emissions, and that these activities result in severe climate stress, including a rise in atmospheric temperatures (global warming), resulting in the melting of glaciers in prominent mountain ranges like the Himalayas, and icebergs in the North and South poles, rising sea levels, increases in the occurrence and intensity of severe weather events like cyclones, hurricanes and droughts1. They also believe that unless urgent action is taken, human civilisation is doomed2.
Climate change sceptics, on the other hand, dispute the claim that human activity, including human-generated greenhouse gas emissions, is a significant contributor to climate change and that global warming in the 20th and 21st centuries is mainly due to natural processes. In addition, many insist that the earth’s climate could absorb any such increase or that there are engineering solutions to these problems. They also dispute the integrity of scientific evidence provided in support of climate change.
The problem with framing this debate from a European and North American perspective is that the interests of the industrialised Global North differ significantly from those of Nigeria and Africa. In addition, the climate change mitigation strategies advocated by climate change activists (e.g. getting influential financiers like the World Bank to end funding projects like coal and hydroelectric power plants) tend to have an adverse impact on Africa’s future industrial prospects. On the other hand, climate change sceptics push for lax environmental regulation, which benefit large multinational mining and petroleum companies (e.g. in Congo DRC and the Niger Delta). The starting point for charting a path forward in the 21st Century is understanding the major climate-driven challenges, their economic and social impact, and optimal mitigation strategies.
Historical records and projections for the number of extreme heat days (35 – 38oC) and exceeding 38oC across Nigeria’s major ecological zones for the periods (1981 – 2000) and (2046 – 2063) are shown in the following chart4. This illustrates that climate change is real in Nigeria, and the northern regions, particularly tropical grasslands, will be the most severely affected.
Nigeria experiences two primary rainfall regimes based on its geographical zones. The Northern region typically experiences low to moderate rainfall between June and September, while the Southern region exhibits a bimodal pattern, with heavy rainfall peaking in March–July and again in September–November.5. Northern Nigeria is more vulnerable to environmental challenges resulting from reduced rainfall, like aridity and desert encroachment. Southern Nigeria is more susceptible to environmental challenges such as increased rainfall, which can lead to erosion and flooding. In addition, the coastal regions of southern Nigeria, such as Lagos, are at risk of coastal erosion due to rising sea levels. For example, it is estimated that if global warming exceeds 2°C, sea levels around Lagos are expected to rise by around 90 centimeters6. A summary of these trends by ecological zone is presented in the following table.
Table: Summary of Projected Trends by Ecological Zone7
Nigeria's agricultural production relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture, making it vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Lower rainfall will impact northern Nigeria, the main source of food, reducing farmland and agricultural productivity and impacting rural employment. Rising temperatures will also have a direct impact on health, for example, heat waves, which could lead to an increasing occurrence of heat strokes. The indirect impact could include the spread of infectious diseases, such as meningitis, and waterborne diseases like typhoid and cholera, as well as malnutrition due to food shortages.
Crop yields in Nigeria are low, even compared to the average yields across Africa. The impact of climate change (lower rainfall in the key production region of Northern Nigeria) could even lower these yields. Increasing occurrences of extreme weather events such as floods could lead to infrastructural damage, and extra spending, with an adverse impact on the wider economy8. Food and water scarcity will compound already existing competition for productive land, which has led to periodic outbreaks of violence across the Sahel region.
Energy supply will also come under pressure, particularly hydroelectric power generation, which is concentrated in Northern Nigeria—a region projected to experience declining rainfall in the coming decades. Increased rainfall in Southern Nigeria will likewise pose challenges for electricity generation and transmission infrastructure, as most of the country’s thermal power plants are situated in Southern Nigeria9.
For progress to be made in the 21st century, Nigeria must adapt to climate change. This adaptation must be driven by what is feasible, not the imagination of the most extreme climate change activists. With its abundant sunlight, Nigeria is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing solar revolution led by China. However, Nigeria’s gas reserves, Africa’s largest and a potential source of clean energy, should play an important role in its future energy mix. Implementing Nigeria’s long-standing gas master plans would not only reduce gas flaring, a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, but also substantially boost energy production for the national grid.
Expanding irrigation coverage can address potential losses in agricultural productivity. Nigeria has around 13,000 square kilometres of surface water, compared to South Africa’s 4,620 square kilometres, yet South Africa has around 16,700 square kilometres of irrigated land, compared to Nigeria’s 2,932 square kilometers10 . So, there is significant scope for an expansion in irrigation and agricultural productivity.
The reality of climate change and its impact on our shared future, must be acknowledged, but feasible solutions to this shared challenge must be developed and executed.
References
Encyclopedia Britannica. (2023, June 23). Is human activity primarily responsible for climate change? Britannica ProCon. https://www.britannica.com/procon/climate-change-debate
Haider, H. (2019). Climate change in Nigeria: Impacts and responses (K4D Helpdesk Report 675). Institute of Development Studies.
Johnson, A. (2021, January 22). How Africa's largest city is staying afloat. BBC Future. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210121-lagos-nigeria-how-africas-largest-city-is-staying-afloat
Central Intelligence Agency. (n.d.). The World Factbook. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/
