Less than a week after Israel and the United States carried out another attack on Iran—the second in just over eight months—the consequences are spreading across the region and beyond. Nearly 1,400 deaths have been recorded on both sides, hundreds of thousands of tourists and expatriates remain stranded at airports in the Gulf region, oil prices have shot up above the $100 mark, and the global economy is likely to hit a new low, battered already by nearly a year of significant uncertainty. While the Middle East is the epicentre of the crisis, countries far and wide are beginning to feel the heat, including Nigeria. What are the likely consequences of the war, especially for Nigeria and the wider African continent? And what should constitute an appropriate response?
The War
A recent update in the decades-long rivalry between the US/Israel and Iran came in the middle of a negotiation between both sides, with talks of foundational agreements, trust building, and an imminent proposal from Iran to other parties to the negotiation. However, just like in the 12-day war in June 2025, the US and Israel launched large-scale attacks, which culminated in the death of Iran’s supreme leader, top defence and intelligence officials, and other public officials. As expected, Iran responded. This time, it chose to drag the entire region into the conflict, with hitherto stable and safe cities becoming targets of hundreds of drones and missiles.
What started as a trilateral war is fast expanding, with European countries, initially reluctant to join the conflict, increasingly drawn in to protect military, civilian, and commercial interests in the region. On its part, Russia, a longstanding ally of Iran’s, has reportedly been sharing the location and movement of American forces with Iran.
Similarly, non-state actors such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and other Iran-backed militias in the region have responded, even if marginally, in support of Iran, and the Houthis in Yemen are reportedly threatening to join the war, with potential consequences for shipping in the Red Sea. This is in addition to existing threats to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed. Suffice to say that what started as a trilateral war has effectively metamorphosed into a full-blown regional war, and could fast spiral into a wider war if Europe increasingly gets drawn in.
The Consequences
For the primary actors, the consequences are glaring. Iran has lost its supreme leader, top officials, over 1,300 citizens, and continues to endure large-scale damage to infrastructure and energy assets. For the US and Israel, the death toll, including for active service men, continues to mount, with the few successful missile and drone attacks causing serious havoc. Beyond the primary actors, all neighbouring countries continue to pay a heavy price for the war, thanks to Iran’s attacks. The reputation for stability, security, and fun long associated with some countries and cities in the Gulf region has essentially been shattered as videos of hotels, oil refineries, and embassies set on fire continue to flood the news and social media.
For the rest of the world, the consequences are increasingly felt. The threat of a rapid rise in oil prices continues to bother countries around the world, already stretched to the limit by nearly a year of significant uncertainty, driven by sanctions, the threat of it, and counter-sanctions by various countries. Qatar’s suspension of LNG exports following Iran’s attacks, Iran’s defacto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key water way responsible for over 20% of the world’s crude oil supplies, and the near-absence of spare capacity in other parts of the world, threatens to send oil prices spiralling above $140 per barrel, prices not seen since the early days of Russia’s attacks on Ukraine in 2022. Just like in 2022, the global economy might be forced into another bout of stagflation, thanks to developments in the oil markets, in addition to key supply chain issues from limited and expensive shipping through the Red Sea area, the Strait of Hormuz, and other key chokepoints within Iran’s reach.
For Nigeria and the rest of Africa, these new realities could trigger a repeat of the painful experience in the wake of Russia’s attacks on Ukraine, where key imports, including fuel, food, and pharmaceuticals, were disrupted and became expensive. Countries may again be drawn into multi-year periods of inflation, weakened exchange rates, external debt defaults, and internal sociopolitical crises. Currently, fuel prices in Nigeria are being adjusted to reflect current realities. With no clear end in sight, and with neither side showing real appetite for negotiation, it’s not clear how long the war will last, and how many countries on the continent, already burdened by longstanding challenges, will hit bankruptcy or heightened fiscal stress.
The Response
The supply chain crisis wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic may be explained away as a one-off or once-in-a-lifetime event. Russia’s attack on Ukraine, at the time it occurred, might have felt that way too; an anomaly in a period of less inter-state conflict. The past year shattered that assumption. Iran was attacked, then attacked again. The Venezuelan president was seized, with Cuba increasingly being discussed as a potential target. It’s not clear which country could be next. What is clear is that the old-world order is gone. Various parts of the world have come to terms with this reality and are reorienting their trade relationships, defence policies, and taking food, energy, and critical material security seriously.
The African continent cannot afford to ignore current realities. However, the African Union, in its current makeup, continues to struggle to build a consensus among African countries on issues that collectively impact the continent. It failed to respond during the pandemic, and again in the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, with the consequent spike in prices of key food and energy commodities. It is repeating the same mistakes currently. And it is not difficult to see. Africa is a mishmash of countries with different governance systems, with some countries more worried about regime survival than food and energy security. New rounds of coups d’état and disputed elections are creating conditions for potential departure by affected countries under the leadership of new juntas and leaders. The regional blocs suffer the same fate.
Thus, Nigeria must face the world as it is, ideally in concert with fellow like-minded countries on the continent, or alone if need be. The days of muddled foreign policies, of hiding under the doctrine of “non-alignment”, and playing big brother must come to an end. As the world increasingly gets dangerous, and pax Americana is thrown into the relic of history, a failure to put its house in order, deal decisively with internal issues, and adopt clear-eyed policies towards the rest of the world will be costly. Food and energy security can no longer be nice to haves. They must be woven into the very fabric of the nation. That means dealing with longstanding hurdles, including undocumented land tenure, oil theft and outdated energy infrastructure, and threats to food-producing areas. Whichever way the Iran war ends, there is no question that it will be a brief respite until another starts. Nigeria and the rest of the continent must be prepared.
References
Brookings Institution (2025). The Road to the Israel-Iran War. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-road-to-the-israel-iran-war/
CNBC (2025). Oil surges above $110 a barrel. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/08/crude-oil-prices-today-iran-war.html
Veriv Africa (2026). Nigeria and the World in 2026. https://www.verivafrica.com/insights/nigeria-and-the-world-in-2026-opportunities-and-challenges-in-the-new-year
The Africa Report (2022). Do Africans still believe in the AU?. https://www.theafricareport.com/228187/do-africans-still-believe-in-the-african-union/
