A large portion of Nigeria’s population resides in rural areas, where a staggering 70% of communities still live in darkness. Across the country, only half of Nigeria’s 242 million people have access to power, a sobering reality of electricity poverty. Despite years of development since the British administration first introduced electricity to Lagos in 1896, stability remains elusive. The Electricity Act 2023 was designed to break this cycle by decentralising Nigeria’s electricity sector and empowering state governments to regulate their own electricity markets. The primary aim of the Act was to increase access to electricity across the country, particularly in unserved and underserved areas. 

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While 11 states have successfully obtained regulatory oversight from NERC, infrastructure remains fragile. Nearly three years since its enactment, it is clear that decentralisation alone is not a panacea for a failing sector. Nigeria requires between 30,000 MW and 100,000 MW to power its economy effectively; however, the country is limping on 6,773.10 MW of actual generation, out of a 13,625 MW installed capacity. For Nigerians, a 24/7 power supply remains a dream. As the sector progresses with decentralisation, can this dream finally be fleshed out?

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How Does Nigeria’s Limping Electricity Sector Affect You?

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The country’s disappointing electricity supply affects Nigerians in every walk of life. Gift is a final year computer science student at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, currently juggling preparations for her degree exams and her research project. She spends hours at her desk, but Nigeria’s crumbling electricity infrastructure means she only has power two days a week; if it is a good week. The forced rush to meet deadlines whenever the lights are on has taken a physical and mental toll on her. Her grades begin to dip, and the quality of her research suffers from hastened writing. Gift represents the Nigerian students whose academic potential is stunted by unreliable electricity.

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In Abuja, Taiwo faces a different kind of pressure. As a frozen foods vendor, he needs constant electricity to keep his goods fresh. After years of shuffling between his diesel-powered generator and the Abuja Electricity Distribution Company (AEDC), he finally decides to switch to solar energy, a move that mirrors Veriv Africa’s 2026 forecast of a massive consumer shift towards solar energy. By switching, Taiwo no longer has to deal with unstable power supply and skyrocketing diesel costs, allowing him to focus on business growth and consistent service. He is one of the lucky Nigerians who can afford this transition, yet his story highlights how the sector forces Nigerians to spend millions for stability or otherwise live in darkness.

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Meanwhile, Edidiong lives in Oruk Anam, a small village in Akwa Ibom that has not seen a spark of electricity in 7 years.  She has to trek to a charging shop in the market or travel to the nearest town just to power her phone. Despite the promises of the Electricity Act 2023, Akwa Ibom has yet to establish its own state regulatory commission. As a result, small communities like hers remain overlooked and underserved. There are millions of Nigerians like Edidiong living in small communities with no access to electricity. Whether you are a business owner, a villager, or a student, Nigeria’s limping electricity sector affects you.

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The Current State Of Nigeria’s Electricity Sector

The sector has undergone a critical transformation through the Electricity Act 2023 and the National Integrated Electricity Policy and Strategic Implementation Plan (NIEP-SIP). However, adaptation is slow. While only 5 states are yet to create their own electricity laws, and 20 have established regulatory bodies, only 15 have obtained full regulatory oversight from NERC. This means that 22 of Nigeria’s 37 administrative territories are still unable to regulate their markets independently. Beyond the legislation, the sector’s physical performance is underperforming. The country’s available generation capacity stood at 5,366.88 MW  and 5,395.72 MW in Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively, and has declined steadily. By January 2026, capacity dropped to 4,901 MW, a mere 36% Plant Availability Factor (PAF) relative to the 13,625 MW installed capacity. Performance worsened in February 2026, with the PAF dipping to 32% and available capacity hitting a low of 4,384 MW.

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As of March 2026, there are no signs of immediate improvement. Nigeria’s electricity sector heavily relies on thermal power plants. Thermal power plants contribute approximately 70% of Nigeria’s generation mix, meaning the sector relies on gas availability to generate electricity. To operate optimally, generation companies (Gencos) require 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet (MMSCF) of gas daily. However, by the end of February, supply stood at approximately 692 MMSCF, reducing the volume of electricity delivered to distribution companies. This shortage is fueled by a staggering debt profile in the value chain, which reached  ₦6.8 trillion in February. With a monthly addition of ₦200 billion, the debt will reach ₦8.8 trillion by year-end. Currently, 16 of Nigeria’s 33 power plants are idle due to gas constraints, leaving a significant portion of the country’s population in the dark. 

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Veriv Africa’s Macroeconomic Report 2026 predicts a massive shift towards solar energy as a necessary alternative. For many Nigerians, installing expensive solar systems has become more cost-effective than enduring frequent blackouts and grid collapses. In 2025, a notable number of premium electricity customers made the switch to solar energy, causing the share of commercial energy consumers on the grid to drop from 20% to 13%. Even the Presidency is transitioning; ₦7 billion was earmarked in the federal 2026 budget to complete the transition to solar by March 2026.  Additionally, the Ministry of Power has commenced construction of a 1 MW hybrid solar plant to take the Abuja Power House off the national grid. While solar is becoming the primary escape from sector failures, millions of Nigerians remain priced out of this transition. Unless the government addresses the financial and structural bottlenecks crippling the sector, the national power supply risks becoming a service of last resort for only those too poor to leave it. 

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Is There Hope For The Sector?

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Until the enactment of the Electricity Act 2023, the sector was tethered to a centralised, one-size-fits-all regulatory framework. Today, the Act fundamentally empowers states to license providers, regulate pricing, and obtain national and international investments independently. Veriv Africa’s Macroeconomic Outlook 2026 highlights how this creates massive opportunities for private capital.  These investment opportunities cut across small, medium, and large-scale renewable energy generation and installation of transmission lines across the country. However, for the sector to achieve true efficiency, the federal and state governments must move beyond policy making and toward strategic collaboration. The sector must address its debts and ensure proper funds management to tackle financial bottlenecks within the sector. Furthermore, the remaining 26 states must hasten their adoption of decentralisation to increase electricity access within their territories. With targeted investments and discipline, Nigerians like Gift, Taiwo, and Edidiong could finally enjoy a stable power supply. 

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Conclusion

The window for a state-led transformation is open; however, it is only possible through strategic collaboration and sustained investments. In 2026, the question is no longer about creating policies and bills, but about proper implementation, the availability of physical infrastructure, and rigorous financial discipline. The lived realities of Nigerians like Gift, Edidiong, and Taiwo highlight the systemic failures that have long forced citizens to bypass the national grid, relying instead on petrol and diesel-powered generators and solar inverters. Given the current hike in fuel prices driven by the Middle East conflict, the migration towards solar energy is becoming a necessity for Nigerians who can afford it. Yet, as Veriv Africa’s report highlights, there is still hope. Through targeted investments in renewable energy generation and the expansion of transmission lines, paired with more states taking control of their electricity markets, the sector can move towards stability and efficiency.

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References

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Ejoh, E. (2026, March 22). Electricity: How Nigeria lost 11,200MW post-privatization.

 Vanguard News . https://www.vanguardngr.com/2026/03/electricity-how-nigeria-lost-11200mw-post-privatization/

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Johnson, M. (2025, June 24). Nearly half of Nigeria’s population resides in rural areas, yet

 fewer than 30% have access to reliable electricity. Climate Score Card. https://www.climatescorecard.org/2025/06/nearly-half-of-nigerias-population-resides-in-rural-areas-yet-fewer-than-30-have-access-to-reliable-electricity/

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Operational Performance Factsheet February 2026. (2026). Nigerian Electricity Regulatory 

Commission (NERC). https://nerc.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Operational-Performance-Factsheet-February-2026.pdf

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Operational Performance Fact Sheet January 2026. (2026). Nigerian Electricity Regulatory 

Commission (NERC) https://nerc.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Operational-Performance-Factsheet-January-2026.pdf

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Udoh, P. (2026, March 18). Gas power plants in Nigeria shut down over $5 billion debt.

 Energy In Africa. https://energyinafrica.com/news/gas-power-plants-nigeria/

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Veriv Africa. (2025). Nigeria Macroeconomic Outlook 2026. 

https://www.verivafrica.com/2026outlook

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Veriv Africa. (2025).  The Electricity Act One Year Later: Has Nigeria Truly Decentralised

 Power Governance? https://www.verivafrica.com/insights/the-electricity-act-one-year-later-has-nigeria-truly-decentralised-power-governance

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