The United States captured Venezuela’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, at the very start of 2026, raising alarms about sovereignty across the global economy. Once again, Trump’s administration asserted its influence on weaker nations.
In 2025, the US positioned itself as the central architect of volatility, with trade restrictions greatly affecting Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world. Yet, amidst these global trade restrictions, positive strides were made: inflation reduced, and debt stabilised. However, with just two months into 2026, this stability is threatened. It is already clear that dramatic, unconstrained moves will define 2026, as the US reasserts its superpower status.
Global Activities and Their Impact on Nigeria
The weight of US superpower status has been more evident in Nigeria since late 2025. Following the Trump administration’s labelling of Nigeria as a country of particular concern, the relationship became increasingly volatile. On December 25, 2025, the US delivered airstrikes against terrorist camps in Sokoto state.
Now, in February 2026, a small team of military officers was deployed to provide unique capabilities to combat the persistent insecurity issue in Nigeria. Insecurity in Nigeria is a great hurdle to economic growth, and the agricultural sector is greatly affected. Terrorists, armed herdsmen, and bandits continue plague food-producing states in the country. Other sectors also face hurdles. The energy sector remains riddled with oil pilferage, and the mining sector with illegal mining activities. Strategic policy reforms such as the 2025 tax laws, the floating of the Naira, and the removal of the fuel subsidy have been central to easing inflationary pressures and stabilising the Naira. However, insecurity threatens to dampen the effects of these reforms on the economy. No significant measures have been taken to contain insecurity in the country. So far, the US’s bold interventions seem to be the only solution in sight.
Further complicating the regional landscape is the rampant wave of military coups across Africa. The recent takeover in Guinea-Bissau on November 26, 2025, marks the latest link in Africa’s coup belt. The multiple coups have sparked global concern, causing political instability in the region and eroding investor confidence. They have become a trend, discouraging regional trade and increasing risks for Africa.
This local instability is mirrored by the global economy. Throughout 2025, global trade was besieged by tariffs, counter-tariffs, and protectionism. However, global trade volume showed resilience in the first half of the year, growing by $500 billion and 2.5% in the first and second quarters of 2025, respectively. The projection for 2026 is less optimistic: the World Trade Organisation slashed its 2026 merchandise trade forecast to 0.5%, indicating continued uncertainty and risks in the global trade environment. With primary players like the USA continuing to embrace volatility in their relations with other countries, the global market has become an unpredictable minefield. This spells more ambiguity for Nigeria’s trade future.
What Does This Mean For Nigerians?
Insecurity remains a persistent thorn in Nigeria’s flesh, and the reality of the nation’s growth remains deeply tied to the security of the soil. Reports of US-led airstrikes in Sokoto in 2025 and the subsequent deployment of military troops in February 2026 mark a significant shift in the combat against rural banditry.
To understand the stakes, we will introduce Musa. Musa, a commercial farmer in the Northwest, represents the thousands of farmers whose harvests directly influence the nation’s food inflation. Musa faces a threat: armed herdsmen and bandits; he cannot safely cultivate his farmland. The recent foreign intervention offers a very slim opportunity. If these operations successfully contain the spate of insecurity in Nigeria, then Musa may finally be able to farm freely, increasing food supply and potentially lowering market prices for the average Nigerian. However, the effectiveness of this external military intervention remains unclear. It is too early to determine how this will affect rural safety. Right now, Musa and millions of Nigerians hold on to this fragile hope. Nevertheless, without a proper domestic strategy to complement US external aid, insecurity will remain a threat in Nigeria for a long time.
The Path Ahead for 2026
Just like Musa, every Nigerian will be affected by the global economy, directly or indirectly. The global economy since 2025 has been uncertain and extremely volatile, and as 2026 unfolds, Nigeria and the rest of the world remain in a vulnerable position.
The Veriv Africa Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026 explains the domestic and global outlook in greater detail. Major policy shifts such as the 2025 tax reform, fuel subsidy removal, liberalisation of the naira, and tightened monetary policies have all been pivotal in putting Nigeria on the path towards sustainable growth. Veriv Africa forecasts a possible 4.6% GDP growth, best case scenario, an impressive growth for the domestic economy. However, the uncertain environment of the global economy poses risks to this forecast. Additionally, internal efforts to contain the spate of insecurity are yet to be fully realised. Other headwinds, such as debt-servicing burden and a continued reliance on oil, threaten to stunt this projected growth.
Ultimately, 2026 will be defined by bold moves in the global and domestic economy. While the domestic economy promises transformative growth, it must navigate a global landscape that remains unpredictable. The surge in regional coups, trade wars, the capture of leaders, and tactical airstrikes has set the global stage for 2026, and it is on this stage that Nigeria must perform. Macroeconomic forecasts remain optimistic, while Nigerians’ faith is waning, especially given the security issues in the country. As the year unfolds, it is clear that the Nigerian government must combine policy reforms with strategic implementation to ensure sustainable economic growth.
References
Adetayo, O. (2026, February 4). US military team deployed to Nigeria after recent attacks. Military Times. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/02/04/us-military-team-deployed-to-nigeria-after-recent-attacks/
Veriv Africa. (2025). Nigeria macroeconomic outlook 2026.
https://www.verivafrica.com/2026outlook
