As 2026 unfolds, Nigeria’s agricultural sector faces an optimistic growth trajectory. Data from Veriv Africa’s Macroeconomic Outlook 2026 reveals a thriving non-oil sector, with agricultural commodities dominating the nation’s export growth. The outlook projects stable growth in the sector throughout 2026. Agriculture contributed over ₦17.8 trillion to GDP in the third quarter of 2025 alone. Employing approximately 45% of the workforce, the industry remains a vital engine for growth, yet structural bottlenecks frequently cap its potential.
Persistent insecurity issues, limited access to credit, poor infrastructure, high energy costs, and an unstable global landscape continue to stifle productivity in the sector. Despite the impressive growth in the sector, critical questions remain unanswered. Is this growth sustainable given the challenges involved? How does this growth translate to reduced food insecurity for Nigerians?
Current State of Nigeria’s Agricultural Sector
Nigeria’s agricultural sector demonstrated progressive improvement throughout 2025. According to the 2025 Agricultural Performance Survey (APS) Report by the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS), the sector recorded sustained growth in key staples such as maize, rice, sorghum, millet, cowpea, yam, and cassava compared with 2024. This surge in productivity, driven by improved extension delivery and technology integration, contributed to a nationwide reduction in food prices. Furthermore, farmers showed remarkable resilience in 2025, expanding their acreage and adopting modernised farming practices.
Agriculture remains one of Nigeria’s most expansive sectors. By the third quarter of 2025, the sector’s output reached ₦30.5 trillion, with crop production accounting for 66% of that value. This domestic strength translated into a formidable presence in the global market. In the first half of 2025, Nigeria’s non-oil export earnings surged to $6.11 billion due to increased global demand and liberalised trade channels through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Total export volume reached 8.02 million metric tonnes, with cocoa and its derivatives accounting for $1.99 billion of total exports. These metrics underscore a banner year for the agro-sector, and this momentum is projected to carry into 2026.
Risks to Nigeria’s Agricultural Sector
While 2025 was a year of statistical triumph, the sector continues to grapple with a persistent climate of insecurity that threatens to undermine the 2026 projections. The North East and North Central regions remain particularly vulnerable, with insecurity issues creating high-risk farming environments. These security breaches have forced many farmers to abandon their farms, leading to lost acreage and potential output. Despite claims of external military aid from the US, domestic policy interventions have struggled to provide tangible security measures for rural agrarian communities. Ultimately, Nigeria’s agricultural expansion will remain capped as long as its primary production zones are plagued by insecurity.
The sector also contends with exorbitant input prices, including seeds, herbicides, and fertilisers. In 2025, seed prices nearly doubled, while the cost of a 50kg bag of fertiliser surged by 41% to about ₦50,000. Beyond input inflation, a massive storage deficit and dilapidated transport infrastructure continue to stifle market access. This was illustrated by the ₦2 billion post-harvest losses recorded in the tomato value chain in early 2025 due to inadequate storage facilities. This bottleneck highlights a vital reality: productivity gains are negated without a corresponding investment in midstream infrastructure. For the agro-sector to achieve its 2026 targets, these systemic inefficiencies must be prioritised.
Climate volatility, characterised by erratic rainfall and flooding, remains a primary threat to aggregate harvests. While dry spells and soil erosion hindered productivity in some regions, conversely, the North West and South West experienced ample rainfall, boosting multiple planting cycles and facilitating pasture regeneration for livestock. The 2025 agricultural season was also heavily plagued by pest infestations. According to the NAERLS report, over 19,300 hectares of farmland were decimated by pests and diseases, resulting in an estimated 22.5% yield loss within the affected regions. This widespread impact across nearly all agro-ecological zones underscores the urgent need for a robust pest surveillance and early response system in 2026.
2026 Projections for Nigeria’s Agro-Sector
Building on the momentum of 2025, the Nigerian agricultural sector is positioned for sustained expansion in 2026. Veriv Africa’s Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026 highlights significant opportunities for the sector, offering key policy recommendations for non-oil sectors. According to the Central Bank’s January 2026 Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the agricultural sector recorded a growth of 54.2 points, marking its eighteenth consecutive month of expansion. This is largely attributed to the stabilisation of input costs, which has translated into lower output prices across the value chain. Output for staple crops is expected to increase, as mechanisation initiatives move from phases to broader implementation. Furthermore, the cost of agricultural inputs such as fertilisers and seeds is projected to moderate this year as well. This expected price stability, coupled with strategic value-chain development, is set to enhance profit margins for farmers.
In response to these challenges, government agencies and development partners are combining efforts to strengthen monitoring systems and implement comprehensive dry-season production surveys. These initiatives aim to provide the data necessary to make evidence-based policy directives. However, despite these efforts, the shadow of food insecurity looms large. The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) projects that 35 million Nigerians may face food insecurity in 2026. To avert this outcome, the government must move beyond data collection to actively mitigate high input costs, climate volatility, and insecurity.
What This Means for Nigerians
Despite the agro-sector’s impressive 2025 performance and the positive projections for 2026, risks that threaten the sector remain. The question now is: where does this leave Nigerians? To answer this question, we look at Gbemisola. Representing the nation’s squeezed middle class, Gbemisola is gainfully employed, earns on the upper end of six figures but lives at the mercy of volatile market prices. Despite the agro-growth in 2025, Gbemisola found herself skipping meals or reducing portions to ensure her salary could stretch through the month.
If the agricultural sector realises its 2026 projections, the impact on Gbemisola’s life would be transformative. Increased aggregate output and stabilised input costs would translate to lower food prices, making her more food secure. Beyond the dinner table, a thriving sector would bolster Nigeria’s non-oil export revenue, strengthening the Naira and further easing the inflationary pressure on every citizen. Furthermore, the benefits extend beyond the household. A surge in production does not just feed Gbemisola, it fuels the nation’s trade balance. By scaling agricultural exports to exceed the $3.225 billion recorded in 2025, Nigeria can diversify its foreign exchange earnings, reduce the historic over-reliance on crude oil and provide a more stable macroeconomic landscape for the entire country.
Conclusion
Nigeria’s agricultural sector enters 2026 at a critical juncture, defined by cautious optimism. The sector’s 2025 performance proves that the sector possesses the inherent resilience to drive a national agrarian transformation. However, as Gbemisola’s story illustrates, the bridge between macroeconomic growth and household food security is still being built. For 2026 to truly be a banner year that reaches the average citizen, the government must prioritise addressing midstream bottlenecks. Ultimately, the success of the 2026 agricultural season will not be measured solely by macroeconomic percentages, but by how growth affects Nigerians. If the country can align its technological advancements with internal security and infrastructure, the agro-sector will boost Nigeria’s long-term economic stability and food security.
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